Retirement & FIRE Planning Dashboard

How to use the Retirement & FIRE Planning Dashboard

1. Enter your current age, target retirement age and the age you want the plan to last to (plan long — 95 or later).
2. Add current savings, other investable assets, your monthly contributions and any employer contributions.
3. Set return, fee and inflation assumptions. Treat them as assumptions; try lower returns too.
4. Enter retirement spending in today's dollars, healthcare costs, and the amount and start age of Social Security, pensions, rental or other income.
5. Read the KPI cards: FIRE target, projected savings, surplus or shortfall, FIRE age, monthly saving needed and how long the money lasts.
6. Use Scenarios and the poor-market test to see how sensitive the plan is, then download the Excel workbook to keep editing.

What's included

• Year-by-year projection from today to your planning age
• FIRE target that subtracts Social Security, pensions and rental income from the age each starts
• Estimated FIRE age, monthly saving needed and portfolio duration
• Healthcare costs before and after 65, one-time expenses and an emergency reserve
• Conservative, base and optimistic scenarios you can edit and duplicate
• Deterministic poor-market test for the first years of retirement
• Excel workbook with live formulas and charts, FIRE spreadsheet, PDF summary and CSV
• Optional free account to save plans privately

How the retirement projection works

The model runs one row per year of age. While you work, contributions are added at the end of each year and the balance grows at your expected return minus fees. From your retirement age, the year's spending need is withdrawn at the start of the year, after subtracting any income that has begun. Withdrawals are grossed up for your optional tax rate. Your emergency reserve is set aside and not invested, and income above spending is not reinvested — a deliberately conservative simplification.

How the FIRE number is estimated

The common shortcut — annual spending ÷ 4% — ignores income that starts later. This dashboard first finds the age by which all your listed income has started, divides the spending still funded by the portfolio at that point by your withdrawal rate, and then adds a bridge: the extra money needed in the years before Social Security, a pension or rental income begin. One-time expenses still ahead are added too. It is a simplified starting estimate in today's dollars, not a guarantee. A 4% withdrawal rate does not guarantee success; outcomes depend on markets, inflation, fees, taxes and how long retirement lasts.

Scenarios and the poor-market test

Conservative, base and optimistic scenarios start from your inputs with different returns and inflation, and every cell is editable. The poor-market test replaces returns in the first two retirement years with values you choose (−25% and −10% by default) to show sequence-of-returns risk. It is a single deterministic path, not a probability of success, because no statistical simulation is run.

Interpreting the results

A shortfall means the projected portfolio at your retirement age is below the simplified target, or the year-by-year drawdown runs out before your planning age. Options to test include saving more, retiring later, spending less, delaying Social Security or adding reliable income. Check the year-by-year table: a high first-year withdrawal rate often reflects the bridge years before Social Security begins. Confirm your Social Security estimate with the SSA, and consider a fee-only planner or tax professional for decisions.

User inputs, assumptions and results

Your inputs are the numbers in the left panel. Model assumptions are the rules described above (timing of contributions and withdrawals, fees subtracted from returns, taxes applied only to withdrawals). Calculated results are the KPI cards, charts and tables. Everything shown is a hypothetical projection; no historical market data or current rates are built in.

Key formulas

Contributions (working years) = (your monthly + employer monthly) × 12 × (1 + annual increase)^years
End balance = (start balance − withdrawal) × (1 + return − fees) + contributions
Spending need (retired) = (desired spending × (1 + lifestyle adj.) + healthcare) × (1 + inflation)^years
Withdrawal needed = max(0, spending need − income streams) ÷ (1 − tax rate)

FIRE target (today's $) = steady-state portfolio-funded spending ÷ withdrawal rate
                        + bridge for years before later income starts
                        + one-time expenses still ahead
Funding gap = projected portfolio at retirement − FIRE target (in future dollars)
Withdrawal rate = first-year withdrawal ÷ portfolio at retirement

Worked example (the dashboard's illustrative defaults)

1. A 35-year-old has $175,000 invested after setting aside a $20,000 emergency reserve, saves $1,000 a month plus a $300 employer contribution rising 2% a year, and assumes a 7% return before retirement, 5% after, 0.3% fees and 2.5% inflation.
2. Retiring at 60, desired spending is $55,000 a year in today's dollars plus $9,000 of healthcare before 65 and $5,000 from 65. Social Security of $24,000 a year (today's dollars) starts at 67. Withdrawals are grossed up for a 12% tax rate.
3. Steady-state need from 67: ($55,000 + $5,000 − $24,000) ÷ 0.88 = $40,909 a year, ÷ 4% = $1,022,727. Bridge for ages 60–66: 5 × $31,818 + 2 × $27,273 = $213,636. FIRE target ≈ $1,236,364 in today's dollars (about $2.29 million at age 60).
4. The projection reaches about $1.92 million by 60, a shortfall of about $373,000. Keeping the same pace, the target is reached around age 63; reaching it by 60 would take about $1,427 a month of personal saving. Under these assumptions the portfolio runs short at 86.

These are illustrative assumptions, not recommendations. Replace them with your own numbers and test lower returns.

Sources

• Social Security Administration — Retirement benefits estimator
• Medicare.gov — Get started with Medicare (eligibility at 65)
• IRS — Retirement plans
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index (inflation)
• Investor.gov (SEC) — Understanding fees

Frequently Asked Questions

How much money do I need to retire?

It depends on the spending your portfolio must fund after reliable income such as Social Security or a pension, how long retirement lasts, taxes and the withdrawal rate you assume. This dashboard estimates a target from your own numbers, including the years before income begins. Treat it as a starting estimate, not a guarantee.

What is a FIRE number?

FIRE stands for financial independence, retire early. A FIRE number is the portfolio size at which planned spending could be funded by withdrawals at an assumed rate. The simple version is annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate; this dashboard also subtracts reliable income from the age it starts and adds a bridge for the years before it does.

Does the 4% rule guarantee my money will last?

No. A withdrawal rate is an assumption based on historical research for particular periods and portfolios. Poor early returns, high inflation, fees, taxes or a longer retirement can make any rate fail. Use the poor-market test and lower-return scenarios to see how sensitive your plan is.

Is this a Monte Carlo simulation or probability of success?

No. The dashboard is deterministic: it applies the returns you enter. The poor-market test applies a single sequence you choose to the first retirement years. It does not report a probability of success.

Are the results in today's dollars?

Balances are shown in future (nominal) dollars, with today's-dollar equivalents alongside. Spending and income are entered in today's dollars and grow with the rates you set. The FIRE target is shown both ways.

Do I need an account to use it?

No. Everything works without signing in, including Excel, PDF and CSV downloads. A free account is optional and only used to save plans privately. Nothing you enter is placed in the page address.

How are taxes handled?

Optionally, as a single average rate on portfolio withdrawals. Real retirement taxes depend on account types, income sources and current law, so check with a tax professional.